Research on the latest market of building decoration industry
Return ListDate：2017-10-16Read：805
It is expected that some of the key companies in 2017 will have the following three quarterly reports:
Expected earnings growth in more than 30% of the focus of the company: (185%), Dongyirisheng Mongolian grass ecological (175%) and palm shares (135%), Wai Hai shares (100%), Hangxiao (83%), Shandong Luqiao (76%), long yuan construction (75%), Oriental Garden (65%), the United States is still living state (62%), (52%), in the HUD ecological design group (34%).
Key companies expected to grow from 15% to 30%: North International (25%), Soviet division (25%), Gezhouba Dam (21%), China Railway (21%), China Engineering International (19%), Shanghai construction (15%)
Performance is expected growth rate of 0 to 15% of the company: Chinese building (14%), China Railway (13%), the tunnel shares (10%), Chinese built (9%) and Jin Tanglang (8%), Sinosteel International (5%).
From 2017 three quarterly Shenwan Hong prospective view, the three quarter of the overall performance of the industry in the first half of the year, 1) in various industry segments PPP high growth sector performance continued, and compared with the semi annual performance also appeared 3-5 percentage points; 2) construction design of a high degree of industry boom, the performance of the company growth rate reported faster; 3) the construction of central enterprises market concentration rising, but orders to performance transformation also take some time, the company steady growth performance; 4) Hangxiao steel structure company to actively expand as the representative of the prefabricated construction asset light expansion, the cost of compensation of the main industry to improve the negative effect, the fourth quarter is still expected May 5); international engineering sector is affected by the appreciation of the renminbi on the performance of individual companies slightly lower than expected, but we believe that the current stock price has included RMB appreciation of the pessimistic expectations, subsequent rapid rise of RMB The probability of the value is not big, the industry margin is good.
Investment proposals: the fourth quarter of the most optimistic about PPP, infrastructure design investment opportunities:
PPP: (1) PPP orders continue to grow rapidly, long-term demand for the better. 1-8 months of this year, PPP won the bid, an increase of 70.63%, the second half of the fourth batch of PPP demonstration projects launched catalyst. (2) PPP price performance is high, performance continues to grow. PPP private 17 years 25 times about PE valuation, 18 years and about 50% growth, placed in 18 years, is the scarcity of high growth targets on the market, the second half of the valuation switch, you can see about 40% of the space. Comprehensive valuation, performance uncertainty, order quality, growth performance, long-term growth and other indicators, the first Oriental Garden (17 year growth of 62%, PE27X orders, income ratio of 7.5 times the highest for the whole industry, second, third ESOP scale were 1 billion 467 million, 900 million, highlighting the company confidence. (17 years), HUD ecological growth of 55%, PE27X), Gezhouba Dam (17 year growth of 20%, PE12X), in addition is also optimistic about the south of the Five Ridges garden, long yuan construction, liberal arts garden, Misho ecological.
Infrastructure design: the core logic is that the industry needs good, high performance certainty, long-term market share to enhance and enter the new design field to ensure that the company's performance continued to grow. "13th Five-Year" planning landing bring a lot of new market demand, the superposition of general local government basically completed planning and design bidding bring relevant acceleration, in recent years the company's order is very good, and the design industry is not money driven, orders to the performance conversion certainty is very high. We believe that the current industry in the early stages of business promotion, according to the current order situation, the enterprise in the next three years the average compound growth rate of at least 35% can keep the current high valuation margin of safety performance, make money also has 1.5 times to space. Recommended in group (17 year growth of 38%, PE23X. One of the leading private capital market segments design + development brought continued growth in the future, nearly two years of substantial growth in orders, such as equity incentive, straighten out the interests, performance elasticity); survey of shares (17 year growth of 75% new shares, PE26X. undervalued the original Guizhou provincial hospital, mountain traffic design ability, in the first half of 17 orders increased by 140%, the biggest beneficiaries, the Midwest infrastructure accelerated in August listed just 900 million financing. (17) 30% years of growth, PE24X, 17 years of high orders growth, business strategy layout is excellent, environmental testing and international engineering consulting form a new driving force for future growth, long-term development space is large. )
